It will crash when the civil war begins
this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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Wallstreet will never let another collapse happen. They have too much money tied up in SFR and will use any correction as a firesale to quickly scoop up as much real estate as they can, further limiting supply and stabilizing prices
As long as artificial demand is being driven by speculators, housing will never get cheaper. Even assuming there is enough supply, which is also unlikely.
House prices are set by supply & demand.
House builders won't overbuild as it harms their sale prices so that won't cause an oversupply.
The only way that the ratio can change in the buyers favour is if suddenly an ungodly number of people die for some reason or the general population's finances collapse to the point where they are no longer trying to buy a house. You're likely to be one of the victims if either of those things happen. All you can do is keep saving.
Some prices are dropping, if you want to risk buying houses that can't be insured. Although a bank won't give a mortgage for those, so there is no winning.
The fact insurance companies are, and trying to leave these markets is terrifying. How many millions live in structures unsuited to their environment.
Housing market collapses don't happen in low confidence events. They happen due to overconfidence leading to excessive lending at high rates and then a sudden sharp decrease in capital availability with which to repay those loans.
At any given time you might have high rates and decrease in capital, or you might have excessive lending, but it's difficult to get all of those factors at once. Especially given how sensitive investors are to such a collapse, as some of them would withdraw investments far ahead of any large events, which would lead to stability in the market as the eventual crash ends up being far less steep.
Any major housing crash will probably affect your ability to purchase a home. The real solution is laws limiting property investment combined with building new, dense housing in areas that already have services.
The $500,000 house will be $250,000 but the 6% interest rate will be 24% and the 10% deposit will be 25%.
Or the economy crashes to the point where prices drop and the fed lowers interest rates to try to stimulate the economy, but the economy is so bad that you don't have a job to be able to qualify for a loan.
fuck BlackRock and Merz with it!
TBH I've got nothing against them. They might own like 3% of everything but they've got full control of nothing. Where there is capital to be made, merchants will come.
If people would just vote for regulation and restrictions on real estate investment the problem would disappear.
Vanguard and State Street too. All three together run the US, thanks to Reagan’s privatization of retirement accounts.
During a collapse, what stops them from swooping in and buying up cheap property?
Property costs money to maintain. And it can only earn as much as someone is willing to pay for it, so if everyone's poor they won't pay enough rent to make up for the holding cost.
But they might be able to hope for the selling price in the future to be worth a lot, right? Unless it looks like they have to lock up their money in that investment, doing nothing, for a decade or more while other investments (stocks, bonds, etc.) do much better.
Investing in real estate is tricky, especially at scale. A mistake can cost a huge percentage of the investment, if not wiping out the investment on specific properties.
Bullets
the inability to be able to rent it at a profit usually. If they don't think they can get money out of it, they won't want to. If the economy hits a point where the housing market collapses, chances are they aren't going to want to risk the buy in knowing that they likely won't be able to sell for equal amount.
Or the much faster method: the "scary" government regulating it
I'm guessing there is enough profit for them to buy up inventory and bulldoze the houses to keep supply and demand where they need it.
Capitalist don't give a fuck if you live or die, line must go up.
The belief that it'll stay cheap and they won't make money
A lot of times they're correct. Home maintenance is expensive, if it doesn't get bought up and renovated it'll just end up on an endless list of foreclosures.
Millennials that bought in their 20s or early 30s are doing fine, gen Z in the other hand...
Lol, with what money do you think the millennials are doing this?
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/buying-a-house-first-time-homebuyer/
i am a millennial that bought a house with a restaurant job back in 2012, because they were cheap snd interestes was low, if i had waited i would be screwed, i don't think i could afford a house now
I'm a millennial who bought a house a year ago because I got lucky with a temporary job that paid well above market rate, enabling me to raise the capital to put down a deposit.
The other millennia I know also bought their houses with inheritance, windfalls or family money.
Been waiting since 2008.
#blackrockmatters