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This has been obvious to anyone who read beyond Western media headlines for a long time now
How long is a long time?
I remember when people were legitimately saying Ukraine could take back crimea...
April 2022
For me, I would say around 2020 and knowing the US was responsible for blowing up the pipelines the around summer 2021, considering the news at that time I could already tell. Not in detail, but enough to know it a high likelyhood, with doubts in between.
It's not necessary to reclaim every kilometre with fighting. If Russia is brought to it's knees financially, the peace can still be achieved.
Just look at ww1. For its entirety, the front was in France and Belgium and Germany held french territory. They still lost. And the Atlantic blockade and sanctions were a big part of that.
Well Ukraine got worn out over last 2 years with spotty western support and weird restrictions on weapons usage.
This is where the west wanted Ukraine. So here we are.
Russia is weakened so west and US got what they wanted it so now we are ready to do a deal.
Nobody will ever give up nukes after this and many countries are going to be getting their nukes in order as that is the only way to properly secure sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Coupled with Israel behavior undermining "rules" based international order, this is the brave new world we got.
Cheers.