Table:
| Pos. | Team | P | W | B | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington | 8 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
| 2 | Tasman | 7 | 7 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Taranaki | 8 | 6 | 6 | 30 |
| 4 | BoP | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Hawke's Bay | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Canterbury | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Waikato | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Counties-Manukau | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | North Harbour | 8 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 10 | Auckland | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 11 | Otago | 8 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 12 | Northland | 8 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 13 | Southland | 8 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Manawatū | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Fixtures: 27/09:
- Counties-Manukau v Wellington
28/09:
- BoP v Northland
- Hawke's Bay v Auckland
- Otago v Tasman
29/09:
- North Harbour v Canterbury
- Southland v Waikato
- Taranaki v Manawatū
2/10:
- Tasman v Auckland
Predictions:
- Wellington 15+
- BoP 21+
- Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
- Tasman 12+
- North Harbour 6-
- Waikato 12+
- Taranaki 50+
1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)
Notes:
Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.
Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.
Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.
North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.
Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.
So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.
As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.
