Kursk: mixed messages

During this week, we continued to observe a rather mixed, if not confused, set of messages in the pro-Kremlin ecosystem trying to explain what was going on. The earlier week was dominated by surprise, shock and disbelief. The Kremlin machine has since kicked in to stem the feeling of panic.

In essence, the following main narratives now co-exist:

• It’s an existential threat. The Ukrainian advance is a heinous plan by the US, the West, NATO, and others. It is a serious threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation which therefore would merit a nuclear response(opens in a new tab) under current Russian nuclear doctrine and strategy(opens in a new tab).
• A civilian nuclear catastrophe awaits. Accompanying the existential threat-logic, a busy campaign has suggested that the Ukrainian aim was to attack the Kursk nuclear power plant and create a civil nuclear catastrophe. This attempt to provoke fear of another Chernobyl-type disaster(opens in a new tab) has become a Kremlin classic together with Moscow’s frequent, baseless accusations against Ukraine of planning reckless attacks on the Ukrainian nuclear power plant near Zaporizhzhia, which is now occupied by Russian forces.
• Don’t worry. The Ukrainian operation is doomed to failure. It is a disorganised, desperate attempt to raise the low morale among the ‘neo-Nazis’ (Kremlin jargon(opens in a new tab) for Ukrainian soldiers). Together with this runs the claim that Zelenskyy just wanted to divert attention away from his supposed political problems. Moscow still tries to advance the story that Zelenskyy is not a legitimate president. A related claim alleges that the West has already lost faith in Zelenskyy and is preparing a change of leaders in Kyiv. Obviously, this assertion is designed to erode popular support for the war effort in Ukraine.