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An old man was shouting at the clouds.

Sounds like what he actually said is that the market would crash if he got elected again...? Presumably he meant the opposite.

The man has never made much sense but this is absolute drivel.

Lol, my friend, you're years late to that party. Been done several times now.

What you described is already illegal in many countries.

I wonder which side of the political spectrum oversaw the most stock market crashes?

1929: Coolidge, conservative Republican

1987: Reagan, conservative Republican

2001: Bush Jr, conservative Republican

2008: Bush Jr, conservative Republican

2020: Trump, conservative Republican

Tbh it's long due for a crash anyway. It's propped up on an unsustainable model as is, and good returns are because a lot of companies are slashing workforce for the sake of bottom line. It's bound to happen regardless.

Claiming there'll be a stock crash if someone is elected is not stock manipulation.

If he made materially false statements, about a stock itself, deliberately meant to cause the economy to crash, then it would be a different story, but nothing he said was materially false, as he was just saying an elected candidate would be bad for the economy, in his opinion.

It would be stock manipulation if he acted upon insider information to manipulate the stock price, or used proven, materially false statements about the reality of a company/stock to deliberately drive the stock down in price.

He didn’t even name a specific stock? So no?

Look, a lot of people are upvoting this take, so I'll bite. How does this manipulate the stock market?

It's a safe gamble to make, because predicting the wrong market turns get forgotten while predicting the right turns get you heralded a genius. Everyone remembers Michael Lewis for "The Big Short". Nobody remembers him for his blinkered interview slobbering all over SBF right before FTX went bust.

So embarrassing.

He's done and I'm done with him. Bye dementia don

Hold up... You weren't done with him until just now?

Wow took you long enough

He's never had to campaign from a position of weakness before. In 2016 he was a troll candidate and never expected to win. In 2020 he was the President. For most of this year he was the clear frontrunner. His appeal depended on him being the "strong man" and now that he's weak he's got nothing.

Don’t forget to vote!

I heard, and people told me this, that he was the best. They told me all the time, and believe me, these were people, really great people, they said, you need money advice you go to Trump. All time best advice they said. And not just them, but folks from all over, really great Americans I mean down to earth working paycheck to paycheck, they're great and he did that.

So I heard.

He's an idiot but the line going up before a crash is what happens, right?

Insofar as the line generally goes up and occasionally crashes, yes.

He's a stopped clock on this one (mostly because it's a really safe bet to make; market crashes, he gloats, market doesn't crash in the near future, everyone forgets he said it).

There is a downturn of some sort coming when the AI bubble bursts (it will, and fairly soon), it's just a question of how severe and how contained it will be.

Sometimes the line goes up and crashes. Sometimes the line goes up and keeps going up. Eventually, it has to hit some kind of limit on economic.

Huge swings are bad. Going up sharply in a short time period often comes with a devastating crash. Capitalism could try to save itself by aiming for small but consistent returns every year. It'd still eventually hit limits of growth, but it wouldn't necessarily Wild E Coyote itself into a wall, either. It's not capable of doing that, though, because the sugar rush of high returns is too good to pass up in the short term. The liberal economists calling for that sort of thing are constantly drowned out, which is why liberal economics ultimately won't save us.

And with Clinton. He has done the "we'll have nuclear war if [he/she] wins" three times now.

It’s almost like there’s no connection between administrations and the stock market

That's not true. Republican Presidencies very regularly implement large tax cuts at the beginning of their administrations. This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment, which results in speculative bubbles, which tend to resolve as market crashes 4-8 years later.

Reagan, Bush Jr, and Trump all kicked off this cycle. Even Obama is kinda-sorta guilty of it, having slashed taxes as part of the '09 rescue package and inflating a small bubble that popped in 2014. Trump's collapse came on a bit earlier than expected, thanks to COVID, but he'd paved the way to the Crypto Crash (FTX devastated large parts of the off-book financial economy and kicked off an inflationary cycle as big finance guys scrambled to reposition) from day one of his administration.

I'd argue that the current AI bubble is in no small part a function of Biden's over-investment in Big Tech at the expense of manufacturing and transit. But we're still waiting to see how that pans out.

investors know they’ll make shittons of money either way

Plenty of investors ride the boom/bust cycle to their own demise. We just don't talk about them the way we talk about the Gates and Buffets and Bezoi, who diversify thoroughly.

But what presidents direct the national budget to do absolutely matters in the downstream industry. Whether MilTech or Telecom or Construction or Agriculture or Semiconductors or Intercontinental Logistics outpaces the field depends heavily on what direction the President moves on domestic subsidies, government contracts, and international trade deals.

If Bush Sr and Clinton had told their administrations to invest big in Linux, I question whether Microsoft would be a household name. I can tell you for a fact that Exxon adopting Oracle Database Suite was what transformed Larry Ellison from small time software salesman to billionaire. That came on the heels of the Reagan DOJ fucking over Inslaw, Inc (which was on the forefront of relational database tech) and trafficking the PROMIS database engine to partisan insiders like Ellison (former CIA contractor) and Perot (oil industry flak).

We're seeing the modern incarnation of this with guys like Thiel and Musk, who are cleaning up on government contracts in information security, automotive subsidies, and aerospace technology largely by buying out the competition with cheap loans sourced through Federal Reserve friendly private banks.

Presidents (and their downstream cronies) have enormous influence on which businesses and industries succeed and which ones fail.