this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
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Because the next war will likely be WW3.
But I'm not confident this is just to avert something larger, as it would seem we passed that point a while back.
I'm not certain, since war is never a logical escalation it's hard to predict when it will happen.
Putin may drag his countrymen into a war simply out of political self preservation but Russia cannot win against Nato. Russia can bomb the shit out of western countries and launch nukes but in a purely math sense it's like Germany in WW2 it would be doomed to failure.
I hope we don't get WW3 anytime soon and cooler heads prevail - I hope Putin is just bluffing and remains sane... but we'll see.
China absolutely has far too much to lose, I think war with China (even with Xi being a fucking hot head) is highly unlikely.
Yup. China might go for Taiwan if they're sure they can get away with it, but that's all. I don't really expect them to dick around with MAD; they're rational actors, at least at this point in history. Russia's goose is already cooked, and I doubt an order to attack NATO out of the blue would even be obeyed.
Edit: The article talks about a cluster of unspecified regional wars, which seems much more likely, though.
I honestly never thought of Xi as a hothead. This could be my bias or lack of awareness. I'd say he has a fragile ego, sure. Do you have any examples to show why you believe that?
I mean, if escalation goes all the way there's not much use to a conventional army anymore.