this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024
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[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago

I found it interesting that Trump claims if he wins the election, he’ll have the Russia / Ukraine conflict resolved BEFORE he even takes office.

He's invoking the Iran Hostage Crisis, I think. Reagan famously cut a deal with the Ayatollah to release the American hostages on the day of his inauguration, despite Carter having nailed down a prisoner exchange months earlier.

If that’s the case, then it seems like he could choose to end the conflict at any time.

He's full of shit. This isn't a hostage negotiation where Biden did 95% of the work for him already. This is an intractable siege spanning a third of the country's land area which has been spiraling into long range bombings of the respective civilian capitals. Trump isn't going to be able to leverage a ceasefire that's already on the table, because Zelensky isn't asking for a ceasefire, he's asking for permission to use higher capacity long range missiles to force Russian troops off the southern front.

I have no doubt that he can’t actually end it without basically giving in entirely to Russia.

The siren song Trump sings is that he could have prevented the '22 invasion by playing nice with Putin before tanks crossed the border. And 100%, if there had been a detente prior to the outbreak of open conflict, hundreds of thousands of lives would have been saved. Even at a concession of territory, this arguably would have been preferable to the holocaust committed across the territory to date.

But the reality is that he was just as happy to sell advanced weapons systems to Ukraine in 2018 as Biden has been in extending military aid today. If anything, Trump was more responsible for the Ukraine/Russia war going hot than Biden. And not even for particularly noble reasons (MIC $$$!!!)

Trump falsely promised Ukrainian leadership his full support in the event of a Russian retaliation, sold them a bunch of tacti-cool military surplus, and then turned around and tried to cut the same fucking deal with the Russians.

In this sense, it also invokes Reagan who was famous for sending Rumsfeld to cut arms deals with both Iran and Iraq shortly before the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War.

Promising both countries your support, goading them into conflict, and then pulling back to let them duke it out is textbook John Bolton foreign policy. And guess who was whispering in Trump's ear all through that first term in office?