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We already have neocolonialism on earth.
I don't see how the economics of space mining is supposed to work out. We have tons of ore on earth, in existing mines, just sitting there, because it's more expensive to expand the mine/process less pure ores than the result is worth. It's not like there's asteroids of pure platinum floating around.
Lemma: Earth lodes are assumed to be limited supply.
Find a Smaug-scale lode of d-block transition metal like gold or palladium on the Moon or a near-Earth asteroid. Crash the market. Buy other metals at fire sale prices.
Also, own the silicon semiconductor market.
Profit.
We did neocolonialism. It was profitable. Nobody forgot that.
Do we have any reason to believe there's giant blocks of pure, rare metals on the moon or asteroids? At least on earth we (well mostly China) gets them by processing more common metals and extracting the tiny portion of REs.
*are doing, is profitable
There's no brown people on the moon you can give a dictator weapons to in exchange for keeping the people selling their labor and resources for peanuts.
OK fine, we are mid-neocolonial. Accepted.
So far there's no evidence to the contrary. Speculative interest says "keep digging, there's bound to be one out there" among the rocky asteroids. Heck, even "comet water might" bring a price, given trends.
If you think the next wave of neocolonialism wouldn't consider indentured servitude and/or conscription, well... I guess we shall see. You don't need indigenous people, just poors.
Edit: ...when you can just turn off their air.
I don't tend to look at the moon for mining itself, more as the port from which we can more cheaply and easily head to the asteroid belt where the money is.
Launching stuff off of earth in order to build large structures/ships in orbit is expensive as hell because of the gravity well. Get moon manufacturing off the ground, then everything we build and everywhere we go from there becomes infinitely cheaper (including Mars).
The Moon gives us the solar system. Far more than going direct to Mars ever would.
Not to mention that all the fancy technologies like mass drivers and skyhooks and space elevators are a lot easier to do on the moon.