this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2023
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[–] Sirence@feddit.de 4 points 1 year ago

Your door has 1% chance at the start and will always have 1%. The other door "inherits" the probability of all other doors the host opened. So that door has its original 1% as well as the 98% of the other doors, resulting in 99%.

Like sure, your door could have been correct from the start, but the chance is 1%. The other door has 99%. Betting on a 1% chance is just not the smart thing.