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All of that can be true and they could still "win". A pyrrhic victory is still a victory.
But any talk of winning or losing doesn't really matter unless you can clearly define what the conditions of winning and losing are.
Russia is losing in terms of casualties suffered. Ukraine is losing in terms of actual territory lost. It just depends on how you decide to spin it.
A pyrrhic victory is absolutely not "still a victory". Russia faces long-term demographic collapse, outmoded energy infrastructure, a permanent insurgency in occupied territories, and the inability to pivot away from a wartime economy heading into a century where millions or billions of climate refugees will pop into existence, while simultaneously vast swathes of Russian land will suddenly become habitable and arable. You do the math.
That's an insult to the intelligence of the Ukrainians who have been battling against Russian incursions for the past 10 years. Even Zelensky has been left frustrated by the "just wait bro" strategy of the west. Hoping for a complete Russian collapse and withdrawal at some undetermined point in the future is a recipe for disappointment. We can also look to the past as a good indicator for the future, and Russia has for better or worse always been very resilient in times of war.
On your point about insurgency; the whole Donbass conflict arose from pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. Donetsk PR and Luhansk PR welcomed the Russian invasion with open arms. To date, the vast majority of insurgents in Ukraine have been on Russia's side.
The foregoing was not intended as a contribution to Ukraine's strategic outlook. I think they've still got a chance at a meaningful victory and it's incredible how well they've done with the often shambolic allies they've got. My only point to be made here is that even if Russia does win in Ukraine, they're fucked beyond words in no small part due to this ill conceived war.