this post was submitted on 26 May 2024
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I can maybe buy that the Kremlin does want a ceasefire, but I'm not sure I agree with Beau's reasoning for that.
His argument, if you haven't watched the video, is that Putin appointed an economist to head the Ministry of Defense, they told him that the war wasn't economically sustainable, so he's seeking terms.
I'm pretty skeptical that this is the first time someone has told Putin that the conflict is not sustainable.
First, it doesn't require an economist to be directly reporting to Putin for reports on economic implications to make it up.
Second, Putin has other advisors who are also coming from the economic side of things, like Elvira Nabiullina. This isn't the first time that he's gonna have direct exposure to someone who is arguing an economic case.
Third, I am confident that at some point in the prior two-and-a-half years, Putin started having people figure out what the constraints on the war effort were. I don't believe that in May 2024, he suddenly got around to this.
Fourth, from what I've read, the likely limitations are on hard power (exhaustion of supplies of important military equipment, like stored tanks). They aren't economic. The economic situation makes things worse for Russia, but it doesn't make continuing the war untenable. Okay, technically Beau just said "economists are good at forecasting", and maybe that could be forecasting materiel exhaustion, but I don't believe that either Shoigu or this guy are personally doing their own forecasts. They're both going to have people under them do forecasts. And I don't believe that the MoD under Shoigu is unable to get a forecast out about materiel exhaustion.
Fifth, an argument I've seen in the past is that an economist was appointed specifically because this guy would be in a good position to improve Russia's war economy, for a long-run effort. I am not at all sure that that is an incorrect take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Belousov
Keep in mind that a ceasefire is not a peace or even an armistice. There have been multiple ceasefires in the conflict in the past. A ceasefire, even if a legitimate offer, does not mean that the aim of the other side is to end the conflict.
Beau covered a lot of that. This isn't the only economist that has said it, but it might be one that Putin is finally listening to. And he's not just a random economist, apparently forecasting is his whole thing, he's really good at it, and I get the impression it's far more detailed than general economy. Which is probably why he specifically got the job and is being listened to.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." — Ezra Solomon, professor of finance, Stanford University