Technology
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Just because it's much more common in those countries compared to USA or Europe to use a VPN it doesn't mean the average user there is actually using them. If there are even regions where it's forbidden to use a VPN (than that's highly concerning more than a TikTok ban or anything else!) it's even more unlikely the average user will have VPN access.
And again all of my other points I think are much more important in that thought process.
Your initial point is that if someone is capable of installing a VPN, he is probably not a tiktok user.
But VPNs nowadays are extremely easy to setup. If for a tiktok user that means that they can access tiktok even though it is bannes in their country, they will follow a guide to set up a VPN, or a friend will show them.
There is literally no knowledge involved in that. So i'm not sure why you think VPN users are above that.
It worked for Netflix, it will work for tiktok.
No my initial point is, that if you are boarding with how to setup a VPN you are probably not the main user that TikTok is generating money from.
Plus companies will probably not use a platform that is banned in a country to target people in that country.
And plus if you are willing to just Google or look up a single video tutorial about what a VPN is or how to set it up you are probably above of the average Internet user today.
Were you around during the ps1 era when you could go to someone and change a chip to play copied discs? That's the same thing here.
Someone has the know-how, he shares that info and that's it. There is no knowledge involved, and the person installing the VPN doesn't even need to know what it is called or what it does, as long as it allows them to watch tiktok.
Then that person tell their friends and it spreads. There is no technical knowledge.