this post was submitted on 11 May 2024
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Maybe. Maybe not. Pollsters typically adjust methodology between elections so this type of analysis is questionable.
He hasn’t led in the average but is currently within the margin of error. The available evidence suggests a toss up but we won’t know for sure until after the election, as always.
I mean..
No. It's not margin of error right now. It's a clear Trump W. Not once you account for Trump's consistent over performance and Bidens consistent underperformance relative to polling aggregates. Everyone with eyes has been seeing it for better than a year.
Consistent in two elections? That’s not consistent. That’s not even data, let alone a trend.
As I said, pollsters adjust the demographic weighting based on election results. It is possible they will again underestimate Trump’s performance. It’s also possible they will overestimate it. Only time will tell.
But regardless of that issue, it is within the margin of error—that is a statistical reality irrelevant to your speculation about polling errors.
None of what I'm saying is speculation, and you are a buffoon.