this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2024
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I think some here are grossly overestimating average human capacity. There are many humans that have difficulty discerning the context of a statement based on their experiences aka examples.
This isn't AGI, but in another couple years at this pace, it's coming. Not necessarily because it is some higher mind, but because the metric for AGI is can it perform all the tasks our minds can at our level. Not necessarily Stephen Fry or Albert Einstein, just as well as a median asshole. Have you met us?
We aren't all that, and most of us spend most of our time on a script, sapience must be exercised, many do many don't, and isn't necessary for what we will abuse these for. It would probably be kinder to restrict discussion of such topics from memory when this matures. Even humans have great difficulty wrestling with them, to the point of depression and existential dread.
As people noted the last few AI autumns, this is a bad assumption. Winter is coming. S-curve, not exponential.
Seeing as the notion of "progress" in this space is entirely subjective and based on general vibes, it's easy to make a case for any curve shape.
I could make a passable argument that it's actually a noisy sinusoid.