this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I mean you assume that a significant number of NDP voters would vote for the libs if they weren't there (or maybe vice-versa). I'm really not sure of that.
Yes I definitely assume that. Maybe not every single person since who knows what goes on in people's heads, but generally we should expect the voters for the two left of center parties to prefer the other left of center one to the right wing one. Particularly since presumably if there was a single party representing those voters it would probably be somewhere in between them ideology-wise.
Sorry for the late reply, the lack of a red envelope makes me not notice replies.
People on election day have to decide if they go voting at all. This is a big deal, it's what most of the campaign in the ridding is focusing on changing (you want to make sure all of your voters go vote, that is top priority in an election).
Having a party that is a bad fit for you is demotivating and likely to reduce turnout. That is what I mean by "likely to vote". It's not the right wing option that people will go for. It's the comfort of staying home and not bothering to vote for a "lib" if you're a progressive, or for a "commie" if you're a lib. For some people, the NDP is already too far right...
So yeah, some of the support of the NDP would transfer over to the liberal party, but definitely not all. And that's not to mention all of the crazy people who can go from NDP to tories at the drop of a hat (voters have shallower roots than the base, or have irrational hatred of specific politicians or parties) or who would just vote Bloq Québécois or something else.