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No expert, but I remember that systems to defend themselves are wery expensive, since they have many elements to cover a perimeter, but the rockets themselves are not as much as those targeting you. If they can keep new systems safe and just consume shots, it seems cost effective to those rockets trying to breach the dome. I'd like for some weapon geek to correct me.
I think you’ve got the basic shape of it for long range air defense, although a Russian Kalibr missile can be cheap when talking about guided missile prices, so there are exceptions. I think, on average, a cruise missile will be more expensive than a defensive missile.
More than focusing on the dollar amount, looking at the capability loss intrigues me more. Cruise missiles are offensive, and take longer than dumb weapons to build, especially for Russia due to shortages of tech resources. Wasting them on essentially a giant terror attack with no follow through is just burning resources. Where were these missiles when Russia was sending infantry waves into Avdiivka?
On the flip side, air defense missiles are only defensive. Sure, using them to defend from this missile wave depletes future ability to use them, but they were depleted while doing exactly what they were built to do.
My understanding is that attacks like this force deployment of air defences to population centers rather than protecting military targets. So no direct military benefit, but it can help shape the battlefield.
It’s absolutely possible. I don’t have have up to the minute reports, and I don’t think anybody in the west has access to the thoughts of Russian military leadership.
My impression though is that it is a quite uneven military trade to put so many resources into an attack like this just to divert protection away from the frontlines, and then not really leverage that by hitting the lines. Maybe it’s coming later after goading Ukraine into permanently sending resources to civilian areas. I do not know.
I have suspicions on what else it may be, but it is mere wild speculation.