this post was submitted on 20 Dec 2023
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[–] nucleative@lemmy.world 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

The only way the current strategy of both sides changes is if a major factor changes, otherwise this cold standoff is the most stable place for both sides on the matter.

It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party - a similar thing led to rapid changes in Hong Kong. Or an American leader changes tactics dramatically because theres no longer an incentive to support Taiwan.

Taiwan needs to be careful to guard against either situation happening.

Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term, and the vast geopolitical diplomatic reach of the Americans means that for now, China would experience too high an economic cost to try and change this balance unilaterally.