this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2023
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It will be with any low block.
Most xG models don't change if there is 0 or 5 defenders between the player and the goal. So against a low block you may get into a good xG position but it will just get blocked.
That is incorrect: https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/#:~:text=Their%20model%20also%20accounts%20for,the%20shot%20reaching%20the%20goal.