this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2023
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NATO will not kick out Turkey. It is the controlling the Bosporus and is the gate from Europe to the Middle East.
It would be a huge blow to NATOs ability to project military power in the region.
Erdogan knows that and used this as leverage a lot over the past decade.
Given that anything went so far, including trading oil with Daesh and allowing supplies and fighters to pass through Turkey, i doubt anything but staunch words to come out now.
Also i am asking myself how much more soft power the US and Europe can afford to loose over Israel.
that is what Erdogan is counting on all the time.
Question is - how much does it take until NATO says "the liability to keep you in is far greater than the benefit you offer."
Personally, I'd say Turkey is very close to the point where the remaining NATO members say "better a horrible end than endless horror." And the day THAT happens, I don't want to be turkish citizen and witness what might happen to the already dwindling economy...