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I don't think the NFL nor the casinos have any incentive to fix matches. Isn't it pretty much the opposite? If there's an impression that the matches are rigged, wouldn't that deter betting?
I just think it comes from a lack of accountability at the officiating level. There basically aren't any consequences for even flagrantly blown calls, and the Replacement Refs fiasco made it a lot harder to try and enforce any. After the NFL tried to introduce video reviews of PI after the Saints-Rams NFCCG incident, the refs basically went into open revolt and refused to overturn just about anything challenged by the rule, and the NFL ended up backing down.
IMO the best move would be the NFL offering the refs union a pay raise too big to ignore, in exchange for agreeing to a meaningful system of accountability around flagrant and/or repeated blown calls. I don't know exactly what such a system would look like, and it'd be a hard balance to strike (people are human and sometimes just don't see stuff), but I feel like it has to be possible to some degree.
I think refs do have some grading and bonus incentives. The problem is that it's all very private, which does make some sense. The NFL being more open about egregious errors would be nice though.