this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2023
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They do still have an outside shot of qualifying through the playoffs.
Essentially they need Israel to qualify (finishing top 2 in their group which is very feasible), then they would enter the League B playoffs with Bosnia, Finland and Iceland (if Ukraine qualify by beating Italy). All of which they could beat on their day*.*
If Ukraine don't qualify however they would take the 4th League B playoff spot instead, but another League A playoff spot opens (because Italy qualify) which goes to League B. So they'd end up in the League A playoffs with what currently looks like it will be Wales/Croatia, Poland/Czech R and Estonia.
Which of the qualified League B teams that end up in League A playoffs is determined through a draw, among the League B teams that did not win their Nations League group. So it would be a draw between Norway, Iceland, and Ukraine, and the 2 other teams would go to League B playoffs.
Norway need more than just Israel to do their parts:
Norway will not get playoffs if Isreal is qualified over Switzerland and both England and Italy qualify directly.
Thanks, yeah Serbia qualifying looks very likely as they just need to not lose to winless Bulgaria at home, or if Montenegro drop any points inc. away to Hungary.
And yeah the Swiss are normally fairly reliable but do still have to play Romania and Israel away, who also play each other, so anything is still possible in that group!