this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Funding effective forest projects in developing countries is an obvious challenge, but offsets are not any solution. I remember way back (COP2?), Brazil proposed the 'Clean Development Fund', in which southern governments would get some money from northern governments, based on historical responsibility for emissions. Most of the Envi-NGOs protested strongly against equity-based "tropical hot air" transfers to governments, reckoning there were too many bad governments, preferring a project-based system which they could influence better. So this morphed into the CDM, but the value of such credits was dependent on the Kyoto market. The back deal in Kyoto (I remember, was there) had been that US (watched by many NGOs and journalists) agrees a toughish target while Russia (watched by almost nobody) got a very weak one - the original "hot air", then one would buy credits from the other. After Bush pulled US out, the Russian (and other E.Europe) credits remained, which collapsed the market including CDM. But as the story posted here tells, the phoenix was reborn once, and probably will be again. The people who decide these things fly around on a cushion of "hot air" all the time - it's how they feel comfortable. In the final plenary of COPs (have sat through enough) they always clap a lot, because whatever the numbers (or lack of them) this flying circus show must go on. And those are UN diplomats, now imagine the "voluntary" business version in private.