this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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Україна | Ukraine 🇺🇦
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It's over when Ukraine's military collapses because it has no more forced-conscripted old men, boys, and women left to throw into the meat grinder. Or when the west recognizes it's a lost cause and decides they had better come up with some excuses and a new narrative in order to pull support. Both of these things are already slowly beginning to happen.
For Ukraine, it's total war for survival, whereas for Russia, it's not. Forcing Russia into total war is well within the realms of possibilities, if it drags on for too long, and even with reduced backup, Ukraine has the manpower to do so. Russia, on the other hand, has to switch mode and forcefully conscript ethnic Russians from Moscow or St.Petersburg to maintain the war, which has historically led to uprisings, whereas Ukraine already has ever reason to fight to the last.
It's impossible to make long-term predictions either way. Needless to say, I'm rooting for Ukraine.