this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2023
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Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org)
submitted 1 year ago by gardner@lemmy.nz to c/newzealand@lemmy.nz
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I find the detail of this Wikipedia page to be amazing. It was shared 2 months ago (thanks @SamC). The main things that have changed since then are a continued slight dip in Labour/National and a slight rise in Maori/ACT.

If you have the time and energy then remember to read the policy proposals by the parties that you don't like as well as the parties that you do like.

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[–] SamC@lemmy.nz 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

National/ACT have definitely opened up a lead of around 5% in the last month or so. But that is a very slim lead, especially when the margin of error is considered.

Probably the most similar election to this in recent times is 2005. I definitely think the chance of a polling error (either way) is higher than usual, because there are probably a few more swing voters than usual. We're also seeing stronger support for the smaller parties than almost any other MMP election.

Even if the polling is accurate, the election could turn on a few events/policies, again in either direction. And there's the NZF factor - it will definitely make things "interesting" if they get above the 5% threshold.

Anyway, my view is that National/ACT are favourites right now, but it's still anyone's to win. It's funny how a lot of people seem to assume that it's more or less a forgone conclusion!

Edit: another piece of trivia - the last 6 Prime Ministers who took office during the parliamentary term have gone on to lose their next election. So Hipkins has some history to overcome!

[–] flashmedallion@lemmy.nz 1 points 1 year ago

It's funny how a lot of people seem to assume that it's more or less a forgone conclusion!

It's interesting, because I've read several times over the years that one of the strongest predictors for an election isn't just counting up who people say they'll vote for but rather who they think will win.

Everyone I talk to seems to think a National coalition will win, regardless of their political leanings. I certainly do because of this, even though though polling suggests it's far from a forgone conclusion. Elections can be so much about a general mood of the country on the day.