this post was submitted on 12 May 2025
26 points (79.5% liked)

No Stupid Questions

40679 readers
946 users here now

No such thing. Ask away!

!nostupidquestions is a community dedicated to being helpful and answering each others' questions on various topics.

The rules for posting and commenting, besides the rules defined here for lemmy.world, are as follows:

Rules (interactive)

Rule 1- All posts must be legitimate questions. All post titles must include a question.

All posts must be legitimate questions, and all post titles must include a question. Questions that are joke or trolling questions, memes, song lyrics as title, etc. are not allowed here. See Rule 6 for all exceptions.

Rule 2- Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material.

Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material. You will be warned first, banned second.

Rule 3- Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here.

Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here. Breaking this rule will not get you or your post removed, but it will put you at risk, and possibly in danger.

Rule 4- No self promotion or upvote-farming of any kind.

That's it.

Rule 5- No baiting or sealioning or promoting an agenda.

Questions which, instead of being of an innocuous nature, are specifically intended (based on reports and in the opinion of our crack moderation team) to bait users into ideological wars on charged political topics will be removed and the authors warned - or banned - depending on severity.

Rule 6- Regarding META posts and joke questions.

Provided it is about the community itself, you may post non-question posts using the [META] tag on your post title.

On fridays, you are allowed to post meme and troll questions, on the condition that it's in text format only, and conforms with our other rules. These posts MUST include the [NSQ Friday] tag in their title.

If you post a serious question on friday and are looking only for legitimate answers, then please include the [Serious] tag on your post. Irrelevant replies will then be removed by moderators.

Rule 7- You can't intentionally annoy, mock, or harass other members.

If you intentionally annoy, mock, harass, or discriminate against any individual member, you will be removed.

Likewise, if you are a member, sympathiser or a resemblant of a movement that is known to largely hate, mock, discriminate against, and/or want to take lives of a group of people, and you were provably vocal about your hate, then you will be banned on sight.

Rule 8- All comments should try to stay relevant to their parent content.

Rule 9- Reposts from other platforms are not allowed.

Let everyone have their own content.

Rule 10- Majority of bots aren't allowed to participate here. This includes using AI responses and summaries.

Credits

Our breathtaking icon was bestowed upon us by @Cevilia!

The greatest banner of all time: by @TheOneWithTheHair!

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
L3s@lemmy.world
technopagan@lemmy.world
jeffw@lemmy.world
L3s@hackingne.ws
26
Selling BTC or not..? (sh.itjust.works)
submitted 3 days ago by BudgetBandit@sh.itjust.works to c/nostupidquestions@lemmy.world
32 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

This might be a bit of a bad question, but I don’t know where to ask to get the least biased responses.

So, I have about $1.000 in Bitcoin that used to be $300 (I’ve put in about $1.500 in various shitcoins before getting those BTC)

I fly drones as a hobby and I was thinking of getting a new system for that amount of money.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com 7 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:

  • Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
  • Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
  • Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions
2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor. 
2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria. 
2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling.
2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs. 
2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK.
2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax. 
2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve.
2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average.
2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside.
2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %. 
2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.”

How the bands were built

  1. Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
  2. Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
  3. Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
  4. Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.

Key caveats

  • Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
  • Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
  • Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.

These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.

[–] IndolentRoshi@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Interesting. Where can I read more about this analysis?

[–] auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 days ago

It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.

Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.