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‘Tariff shockwave’ leads to collapse in ocean container bookings (www.freightwaves.com)

submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by Eyekaytee@aussie.zone to c/world@lemmy.world

77 comments fedilink hide all child comments

edit: oops I thought I was linking to the article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tariff-shockwave-leads-to-collapse-in-ocean-container-bookings

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[–] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 35 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

There's still a lot going on globally:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/

But I don't expect the US to have a fun ride

This economist says there’s a 90% chance of a recession. Here’s the math.

During the 2018 trade war with China, the U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2% to 3%. Studies show that the impact on gross domestic product was between 0.25% and 0.7%.

Using the low end of the estimated impact, and Trump’s plan that at the moment calls for double-digit tariff rates, Slok says the negative impact on GDP in 2025 could be almost 4 percentage points — and that doesn’t even include the negative impact from uncertainty for consumer spending decisions and business planning.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-economist-says-theres-a-90-chance-of-a-recession-unless-tariff-policies-are-changed-e43c40d1?mod=home_lead

So a 4% hit to GDP when GDP last year in the US increase by 2.8% does not sound good

[–] anonApril2025@lemmy.zip 4 points 1 day ago

We don't need a map of green and red dots, we need ships dammit!

[–] RedWeasel@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago

I told friends and relatives in February that we'd be in a recession by the end of the year. I expected 3 quarters for it, not his first 2. 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction are needed by the modern definition of a recession.