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I wonder, assuming buying habits are essentially unchanged, does this mean emissions are going to go down (shipping is nearby, no more cross-ocean planes or ships), up (more trucking, meaning smaller loads), or will it roughly cancel out?
I work closely with global transportation, and I can tell you with confidence this means GHGs are going up. Theres something called scope 3 emission factors and sea freight is lower than truck exponentially depending on the distance and weight.
I was afraid of that. I'm guessing that any US-Mexico railways aren't very useful, assuming they actually exist and are maintained.
Almost all freight from Mexico to the US and vice versa gets offloaded at a warehouse on the border and then switched to a different driver/mode of transportation as having a driver eligible to do the whole trip is hard to come by and expensive.
That being said, the rail ramp in Laredo, TX (the crossing point of Nuevo Leon, MX and the US) is active and widely used. Issue is that rail is slow so if your shipment has any urgency, you just use a truck. I use both and while US rail companies suck to work with, they can be very effective cost wise and help keep our total carbon emissions down. But nothing beats a truck in terms of speed and availability in the US...