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Zelenskyy: No world leader has the right to negotiate with Putin on behalf of Ukraine
(www.pravda.com.ua)
this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2024
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Huh? This conflict basically already is the Afghanistan war.
Which one?
The one we're talking about.
The taliban had the support of Pakistan, as well as Iran and Russia - that's the only way that kind of war could last for 20 years. That's essentially where we are now with western backing, but if the west pulls support.... Ukraine can last only so long on will-power alone. The same could be said for Russia, but as far as I can tell there isn't an active risk of their allies pulling support yet.
edit: far be it for me to point out that's why there's been so much circling of wagons to keep the US involved and so much panic about trump pulling us out
I think you're overstating how much help the Afghans got from PK/US the first time PK/RU/IR the second time, but in any case Ukraine is far better able to sustain itself given their much more developed industry and infrastructure, and the fact that the bulk of the country is unoccupied. It wouldn't be a cakewalk by any means, but Ukraine wouldn't cease to exist.
I don't really think I am, but fair enough.
Ukraine might have more advanced infrastructure than Afghanistan, but having that infrastructure within reach of Russian missiles and airstrikes means that they'd have to defend it or else lose the means to sustain a continued resistance. Again, I don't think people appreciate just how much trouble Ukraine would be in if the west pulled support before a ceasefire deal is struck - Ukrainian forces aren't guerilla fighters. If Russia didn't already have the upper hand now, they certainly would once Ukraine was left to maintain their resistance alone - and then it would really only be a question of how long Russian citizens will put up with their wartime economy (and how many soldiers UK is willing to lose).
There's absolutely no way Russia can take and hold all of Ukraine -- it would be a real challenge to keep the provinces they've already carved off if Ukrainians keep pressing the issue. I'm certainly not advocating for the end of Western support -- au contraire -- but it's really, really hard to occupy and pacify a country, especially one the size of Ukraine with a population of nearly 40 million. The USSR had enormous resources to deploy in its imperial expansion and was mostly unopposed, whereas today's Russia doesn't benefit from either point and it's harder to be a rogue state in today's world.
I'm not suggesting they would or would want to take all of Ukraine, just that Ukraine isn't likely to gain any ground or stop further Russian advance without outside aid.
Oh, in that case I agree, although if UA wanted to make things as difficult for Russia as possible, they could do so indefinitely in such a way that those easternmost provinces are in a perpetual state of low-level war, let alone the massive demographic and economic damage that Russia will have to deal with and will likely never recover from.