this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2023
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I wonder, including how many people have left Russia, what percentage of the population is down. In deaths, that level of loss is greater than anything we've seen since maybe Iran/Iraq war, though not on par with the Second Congo War. If we assume Ukrainian losses are similar to what the Russians have, we're close to Vietnam and Korea numbers. In a more industrialized country, that has to be getting felt, especially as the pool for soldiers is the same pool that the worker base is pulled from.
While equipment losses are likely more important to the goal of victory, casualties are a piece of the puzzle, and have longer term implications. With sanctions finally starting to bite, I'm curious to know what Russia does for the next decade, or so. Where China might usually fill the gaps, they can't afford to help, with their own economy in peril. I think, at the very least, we'll see Russia pull away from their dealings in Africa and the middle east, which is huge, because until Ukraine, Russian diplomacy seemed to be quite successful in those areas. The US appeared to be having trouble countering it, routinely. Lavrov looked like some kind of genius, until the full scale invasion of Ukraine. It's still mind blowing that they've pursued this war, as soon as they realized Kyiv didn't fall, and the Ukrainians weren't rolling over. While taking a hit to their prestige, they could've walked away intact. Now, that no longer seems to be on the table.