forecasting

132 readers

1 users here now

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

founded 1 year ago

MODERATORS

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced (www.astralcodexten.com)

submitted 1 week ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

1 comments fedilink hide all child comments

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 1 week ago

Well, I can imagine that a Polymarket market with over 2 billion dollars in trades is superior to a Metaculus question. Simultaneously Metaculus questions can be better on average. Maybe there is a point where real-money markets become better but it requires a certain amount of liquidity.