I wonder how much chance the conservatives have of bagging some of their votes. I imagine most will go further left (Greens or Socialist Party) with preferences to Labour before the tories, though if enough leak through it could put Dutton in the Lodge.

[–] zero_gravitas@aussie.zone 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The Coalition voted for the anti-CFMEU legislation too, but I guess people could preference Coalition above Labor just to hurt Labor in the 2PP figures.

I'm not sure it'd send any clearer a message, though, than just preferencing Greens and socialists above Labor but still putting Labor above Coalition. Seems like a Labor government would be more likely to repeal the laws than a Coalition one, under pressure from a bolstered Greens bloc.

[–] Ilandar@aussie.zone 2 points 1 month ago

but I guess people could preference Coalition above Labor just to hurt Labor in the 2PP figures.

I feel like reactionary swing voting like this would not be a common behaviour among union members. Like the whole point of joining a union is that you have some pretty entrenched beliefs about worker's rights, and one party here clearly has a worse record than the other in that regard. Like the thought occurred to me too, but I think you guys are right that people going further left to independents or The Greens, before ultimately preferencing Labor above Liberal, is the most likely change that could occur.

[–] dillekant@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 month ago

There's also the possibility of a split. If enough of the unions want to split, and it does look like it, it's possible that "left Labor" and "right Labor" split into two parties.