this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2024
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I think Schneier wrote this well before quantum computers were a reality - did he miss something fundamental in regards to them? Quantum computers are relatively new but the theory behind them is nearly a century old.
I'm not a physicist but quantum particles were still considered to be matter the last time I checked.
The issue here is that Schneier is discussing brute force forward computation of cryptography (IIRC of AES). Quantum computers don't iteratively attack primes by attempting to compute all possible primes. The current conventional computer attacks against RSA also aren't brute force hence why the advised size of an RSA key right now is 4096 bits.
This calculation only holds if there is no faster way than brute force iterating the entire key space.
Good post, but dear god the text colors make my eyes hurt.
So two things that are not accounted for here: