Climate Migration

More than 80,000 homes on Staten Island, in southeast Queens and in the suburbs east of New York City could be lost to floods over the next 15 years, according to a new report that serves as a warning of how climate change could make the housing crisis even worse.

The report, released Monday by the Regional Plan Association, a nonprofit civic organization, said that swaths of land in every borough were likely to become impossible to develop, helping push the area’s housing shortage to a staggering 1.2 million homes.

The report did not single out specific neighborhoods as at risk for flooding. But of the 82,000 homes that could be lost by 2040, more than half were projected to be on Long Island, with some Atlantic Ocean-facing towns like Babylon and Islip bearing the brunt. Cities along the Long Island Sound on both the island and in Westchester County would also be vulnerable. In New York City, waterfront neighborhoods in southern Queens and Brooklyn, like the Rockaways and Canarsie, would see the most losses.

The report is the latest to underscore how the dual threats of climate change and a lack of housing are looming over coastal cities around the world.

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Severe storms continued to pound parts of the South and Midwest on Sunday, as a punishing and slow-moving storm system unleashed life-threatening flash floods and powerful tornadoes from Mississippi to Kentucky.

On Sunday, areas that had been battered by high winds and washed out by heavy rains since midweek saw additional inclement weather from the relentless storm system that's caused road closures, widespread power outages and some voluntary evacuations.

At least 18 people in multiple states have died from weather-related causes since Wednesday, the Associated Press reported.

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Researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year (but with less intensity expected than last season). The annual prediction is closely-watched in Florida and other coastal states when hurricane season officially starts on June 1st.

Experts at Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team estimate that nine hurricanes will occur over the course of the upcoming season, with 17 named storms overall. Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be major, meaning a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Hurricane activity this year is expected to be roughly 125% higher than the 1991-2020 season average, according to the report. One of its authors, Levi Silvers, told CBS News that jump is significant, albeit slightly lower than the 2024 activity prediction (which was 130% higher than the 19-year average).

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Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder provides maps and analysis of the people, homes, and land at risk from worsening coastal flooding driven by rising seas in the contiguous U.S.

Around 2.5 million Americans in 1.4 million homes live in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood in 2050 under projections that assume global pledged commitments to reduce carbon pollution are met.

Florida, New York, and New Jersey have the most people and homes in areas at risk from a severe coastal flood.

This is a rebuilt version of FEMA’s Future Risk Index, which was released on Dec. 12, 2024 and taken down on Jan. 19, 2025 when the Trump administration decided to suppress climate data. It is the first free tool to show how much climate change will cost American communities.

The Future Risk Index adds a climate change multiplier to FEMA’s National Risk Index, which measures the economic impact of natural hazards. The Future Risk Index shows how those impacts change when you take climate change into account.

This Climate Matters analysis is based on open-access data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Key concepts:

• Climate change is supercharging the water cycle, bringing heavier rainfall extremes and related flood risks across the U.S.
• Some 126 U.S. cities (88% of 144 analyzed) have experienced an increase in hourly rainfall intensity since 1970.
• Across these 126 locations, hourly rainfall rates are now 15% higher on average than in 1970.
• Hourly rainfall intensity has increased in every U.S. region, with the largest average increases among cities in the Upper Midwest, Northern Rockies and Plains, and Ohio Valley.
• People, ecosystems, and infrastructure in both wet and dry locations are facing the risks that come with heavier rainfall.

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Pulling in 184 sets of data to rank more than 70,000 U.S. Census tracts, the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index helps you see which communities face the greatest challenges from the impacts of a changing climate. This tool shows what is driving the challenges, so policymakers and communities themselves can take action to build climate resilience where it is needed most.

https://archive.ph/w9fEI

Non-paywalled link: https://archive.ph/6w9EV