Technology

Hmm, they do have a union. It wouldn't surprise me if they push to put some rules in place about requiring a driver in the cab for safety.

Which wouldn't even be a stretch, really. Heavy loads are dangerous, and I don't think people have a lot of faith in autonomous vehicles right now.

But on the flip side, you also have to consider how much cheaper, well, literally everything, will be when it doesn't cost $30 an hour to move a product from one place to another?

Everything will cost so much less that Universal Basic Income wouldn't need to be anywhere near as high as it is right now to be "living wage".

Like it or not - self driving trucks are coming. We need to find a way to adjust to that. The timeline for when is probably not "when will the tech be ready" but rather "when will society be ready". I'm pretty sure if you deployed self driving trucks today, pitchforks would come out and those trucks would be blocked by civil disobedience.

Slow it down too much though, and you'll put your whole economy at a global disadvantage. A first would country could easily become a third world one by refusing to allow autonomous trucks. Autonomous trucks already exist and not just on pristine highways — for example they're used on mine sites with no roads at all — https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/bhp-autonomous-trucks-collide-at-jimblebar-iron-ore-mine-in-pilbara-ng-b881139676z

point A and B are already known for each route, so more of the route could be “hardcoded”

yeah, and it is all good until there is any kind of non-standard situation on that road.

luckily for truckers, i think that truly self-driving cars are further into the future than their proponents would like you to believe.

I read somewhere that the largest class of jobs in half the US states was truck driver and it's high in most other places (that article says 600k). They are likely to be the first sector almost wiped out by AI, followed by call centre workers and a lot of the legal profession. Good luck reskilling all those people. Here in the UK, call centres were often opened in areas of low employment, so we'll see a lot of the already decimated old industrial areas hollowed out.

Yeah, but think of the amount of damage that happens due to accidents where trucks are involved. If that can be substantially reduced it would be a huge win. We're talking about thousands of lives saved each year.

What is PD?

Have you heard of "pedestrian controlled" trucks? They're increasingly common. Here's one being used to move an airplane cargo container:

They're usually small but these days some carry 15 tons and you just grab them by a handle and start walking. Often there's a lifting function (to load cargo onto/off of tall shelves/etc).

You're not always limited to walking speed, some of them have a platform the operator can stand on to increase the speed.

I could totally see those increasing in size, to the size of a full size shipping container maybe, and having a wireless control system instead of needing to stand right next to it (which could be dangerous). It'd have sensors prevent the operator from running into anything and the control would just be a pair of joysticks. Outside of the loading dock of a building, they'd be able to drive autonomously.

The job of "driver" would be replaced by just a team of people who load / unload the cargo and plan/supervise the truck. And I don't think it's far away at all - we're already seeing it with smaller cargo loads (is 15 ton all that small?).

Don't forget 70mph winds blowing across the highway in the Plains states too.

On your last point, we do. The Unions just push against them due to jobs being lost.

sounds like the movie Swordfish.

"how many innocent victims splattered across the wall does it take"

Or a cop wants to pull it over to inspect contents? A truck with no driver isn't going to be able to unlock the trailer and participate in that.