TL;DR: Russia can produce ammunition for trash weapons at great speed, and has vast amounts of untrained meat to throw at the front lines.
this post was submitted on 25 Jan 2024
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Yeah, the real problem isn't sending weapons to Ukraine, it's the problem that occurs when Ukraine runs out of ammo, or people to operate said weapons.
The US (and NATO) has often measured its ability to wage war by spending (in dollars, or percentage of GDP). Spending on single high tech missiles that costs millions are included here. So those numbers look really impressive. But if those missiles aren't being used (because they're too expensive, or we can't risk them being recovered and reverse engineered), and are kept in reserve indefinitely, then what remains is an ammunition gap.
Furthermore, I am of the strong opinion that Ukraine loses, eventually, unless NATO boots are on the ground in Ukraine, and NATO planes are in the air above. It doesn't matter what the exchange ratio of casualties is once the available manpower in Ukraine is low enough. And without air superiority, Russia wins a ground war given enough time.
I realize that NATO boots on the ground constitutes an escalation. So we should do it slowly, like turning up the temperature on the pot of frogs.
Lastly, if we're going to spend so many billions on missiles, they should be ABMs (anti ballistic missiles).
I am but an armchair general, sitting comfy in Canada. I've got a family map of Ukraine here with Melitopol circled that says "grandfather's birthplace" -- my family fled due to Russification 120 years ago. It seems Russia never changes.
I realize that NATO boots on the ground constitutes an escalation. So we should do it slowly, like turning up the temperature on the pot of frogs.
I slightly disagree with this point, I think the first time a single NATO boot hits the ground in Ukraine Russia will see it as an escalation and respond in kind. They've been posturing and playing a game of brinkmanship for decades and lately they've started probing NATO defenses in Poland.
Call me crazy but I think Putin wants this to escalate so he can draft every able bodied person and enact a "Total War" policy.
So if we're going to put boots on the ground, we need to put as many as possible right away
Call me crazy but I think Putin wants this to escalate so he can draft every able bodied person and enact a “Total War” policy.
A "Total War" with Russia would be nuclear. Either you think Putin is suicidal, or we need a new term to describe "total except for nuclear" war.
I mean, it would be a general mobilisation, probably with the immediate nationalisation of all industry, and a formal declaration of war
I slightly disagree with this point, I think the first time a single NATO boot hits the ground in Ukraine Russia will see it as an escalation and respond in kind.
"Respond in kind" would be Russia putting boots on the ground.
Call me crazy but I think Putin wants this to escalate so he can draft every able bodied person and enact a “Total War” policy.
What good would that do Russia? He'd have more "meat waves", but Russia is already destroyed half of its military in vehicles and aircraft. Its stripping distant military bases, but that leaves Russia's back open. China would love a defenseless Russian border.
Ukraine will lose because Russia has managed to turn up their war time economy to 1000 while the West has given away most of the stockpiles it was willing to commit and has failed to put their money where their mouhts are and actually start a real war economy.
We are giving Ukraine just enoth to not lose at this point. And with Israel taking away the spotlight and adding another nation that is in need of war supplies, Ukraine will run dry eventually.
All the big words of the west on the end will habe been but a lie. And the rest of the world will see this and see it very well, when it comes to who they pick as their allies.
Furthermore, I am of the strong opinion that Ukraine loses, eventually, unless NATO boots are on the ground in Ukraine
I think you’re right, and there’s going to be dreadful fallout no matter what NATO chooses to do.
NATO likely isn't interested in Ukraine outright winning. It's far more beneficial for them that Russia is tied up in an endless stalemate and resistance conflict for a decade. Yes this means essentially sacrificing Ukraine, but it wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened.
I strongly disagree. The benefits of having Ukraine as an ally are much bigger and longer lasting than the effects of this conflict. That’s why neither side wants to compromise.
Mass late-game zergling strategy?
NATO needs to research blue flame, stagger a line of siege tanks, and maybe pump out some liberators.
Putin's keystrokes per minute is abysmal.
He's a protoss main at heart.
Did you mean APM?
Sir, this is StarCraft 1.
This is the first screenshot of this game that has made me want to play it
Oh, man, RTSes are the best.
What do you like about them? Just curious about your perspective.
NATO overestimated Russia's actual war capability, but underestimated Russia's willingness to grind.
Seems more like a meat grinder than a war machine.
Even so, historically it has been effective.
Horde tactics were definitely more effective back when we didn't have laser guided 20,000 pound bombs that can turn the horde into pretty glass across the fields of Ukraine.
the URSS was effective, now russia...
Keep in mind that the Nazis back in the day had sophisticated weaponry and a lot of high quality stuff, but they were beaten by cheap, mass produced, easy to use weapons and armor. Among other things - but the point still stands.
The Ukrainians are not Nazis, nor are they invading Russia.
This true but also irrelevant to the point that technological supremacy doesn’t equal a guaranteed win.
And Winter. Don't forget the winter.
The Germans were artisans.
They could build beautiful tanks in a beautiful way the west could only dream of. They kept skilled workers doing a craft that was the envy of workers around the world.
An American tank was fixed with replaceable parts punched out on a factory line by a women with 2 hours of experience. Germans tanks were unique and were taken back and repaired in a factory that had been bombed 3 times.
I think Estonia is just pointing out a reality. Russia can produce and buy far more artillery shells, for example, than the EU can produce. When the US production is added NATO pulls more even, but Russia still can present a workable line.
One estimate has put Russian artillery shell production at 7x the combined production of all of NATO.
In practice this isn't as bad as it seems for NATO, that production goes into other things like aircraft and naval armaments, but in terms of supplying Ukraine it's a problem unless you want to loan them an entire air force.
And, of course, there's the simple reality than 10 artillery shells at ~$800 a pop are still an order of magnitude cheaper than a single Hellfire at ~$150k.
The only thing I'm wondering is how long it will take them to run out of meat to throw at the conflict. When all the able bodied adults are used up, are they going full Nazi Germany and recruiting prepubescent kids to go and die for their war?
Last I checked, Russia's population wasn't increasing. I'm certain that sending a nontrivial number of their population to their deaths on the front lines isn't improving that situation. So I'm not convinced that they've underestimated Russia so much as Russia has over estimated themselves. Who are they producing the ammo for? If the strong, young adults are filling the graveyards, who will fire those bullets?
I'm still unsure why the conflict is still going. I get that at first, Putin wanted to reunify former USSR territories back into Russia, but bluntly, after 2+ years of bombings and field combat between the two, they're not going to reclaim the country. Even if they win, they'll just be getting land that used to be Ukraine, since nearly the entirety of the Ukraine and it's populous is now dead or have fled to somewhere where they won't be killed.
I don't understand this war. I'm not sure I ever did. I hope it ends soon and Ukraine can continue and become a peaceful sovereign nation. I think about Ukraine often, and I hope against hope that the people of the Ukraine are staying safe.... at least, as safe as they can be given the circumstances.
Peace and long life to all of you. 🖖
They're just not doing that in their war with Ukraine because if they get their asses beat in this fight, nobody will take them seriously in the NEXT fight until it's too late! It's 4D Chess, not a complete failure!