this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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[–] worldwidewave@lemmy.world 82 points 3 months ago

And you’ll never believe the rent prices on the other ⅓

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 62 points 3 months ago (16 children)

Scientist piping in with my two cents. Granted my speciality is geophysics and planetary science, and not specifically climate.

In geoscience we tend to talk about things on very long timescales. Like: at what point with the sun's output cause the earth to turn into Venus (250 million years as a lower bound, ish, then all life is doomed on Earth). The rate of change we've applied to our atmosphere is faster than any natural process other than a meteor strike or similar event. There are climate change scenarios where all life on the planet dies (why wait 250 million years!?), but they're mostly improbable unless we have some sort of runaway feedback mechanism we've not accounted for. 2/3 of humans dying is also unlikely. Coastline and ecosystem disruption are almost certain though.

The thing about humans are: we are frighteningly clever. We can build spacecraft that can survive the harsh environment in space and people survive there. As long as climate change doesn't happen "too fast" (values of "too fast" may vary), we will engineer our way around it. On the small scale: air conditioning; and on the larger scale, geo-engineering (after accumulating sufficient political will). We're so clever that, if we (or our descendants or similar) can probably even save the earth in 250 million years when the sun's output passes the threshold where it wants to fry us -- assuming we survive that long.

That doesn't detract from her statement. But it is the Mirror, and the headlight is trying to be incendiary.

[–] MTK@lemmy.world 100 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (5 children)

I think people are missing the point, it's not about who survives, it's about who dies and suffers.

If I told you (made up numbers) that in the next 50 years, 100 million people will die an average of 20 years early because of climate change. Sure, 100 million is just about 1.3% of humans, but it's still 100 million people, who will die at 50 instaed of 70, or at 25 instead of 45, these are people who will probably die from heat, from natrual disasters, from famine, from poor health as economies collapse.

We won't be fine, someone will be, but WE, as a group, won't be fine.

In fact, we are already not fine but it's mostly felt in poor contries.

Not to kill the mood but the harsh truth is that the generations before us doomed a lot of us, and the current generations are just starting to get it, and future generations will truly feel the ignorance of our past and the indifference of our present.

[–] Soup@lemmy.world 30 points 3 months ago

No, kill the mood. Stab it in it’s stupid fucking face and kick it’s corpse out of the way. All it’s done is be an obstacle because weak people are too uncomfortable doing little things and even more whiny now that the need is far greater.

You’re exactly right and put it perfectly: “it’s not about who survives, it’s about who suffers and dies”. People will die over something we have endless solutions to but will never put in place because the weakest, most fragile little snot-nosed fucks are afraid of the slightest discomfort.

It’s disgusting, end of.

[–] BarbecueCowboy@lemmy.world 28 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

We're estimated to have lost about 15 million additional people in 2020/2021 due to covid and a disturbingly large amount of us were salty about being asked to cover their mouths in order to stave it off. Might favor certain groups, but it's doom from every generation top to bottom.

[–] Hexbatch@lemmy.world 7 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

If I look at it a certain way, we all come from a long line of millions of ancestors who barely scraped by or lucked out.

Our instincts only go as far as what we can see, hear, feel, taste, smell or vibe. We are not wired to react well to invisible things

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

Generations of the past had plausible deniability. Most of them may not have known what they were doing.

We knew. We’re well informed of the consequences. And we kept making it worse. We’re still making it worse. We still have too much of the population unwilling to change. How do you think future generations will remember us?

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[–] Nougat@fedia.io 33 points 3 months ago (1 children)

As long as climate change doesn't happen "too fast" (values of "too fast" may vary), we will engineer our way around it.

While this is true, we must also take into account who exactly will benefit from that engineering and survive. Not everyone will be able to take advantage of non-global engineering solutions, and just like with every technological advancement, the differential will be used by those "with" to subjugate those "without."

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

The global solutions will eventually happen. Right now nationalism gets in the way of it, but on the timescales of geology, nationalism is a blip. Hell, many scholars cite 1648 as the creation of the current system -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_system -- so hopefully this is just a phase and we'll get over it and start global scale geoengineering before we get cooked :)

Can you imagine a UN agency in charge of sun shades positioned at Sun-Earth L1 that reduced the total sunlight hitting the earth by 0.1% and halted the heating problem entirely? Wouldn't solve the carbon dioxide levels, but it'd be a start :D

(The orbital mechanics folks can chime in here. Sunshades at L1 are unstable because L1 is unstable, and sunlight exerts pressure on them like solar sails. However, there are quasi-stable positions slightly sunward of L1 where you can balance these instabilities and actually use the solar sail effect for station keeping in a swarm. It would require launching a lot of rockets, but is entirely doable with today's technology. Said rockets use hydrocarbons to launch, ironically.)

[–] Nougat@fedia.io 13 points 3 months ago

Eventually, yes, and in the meantime, the global divide between rich and poor will grow ever wider.

There are exactly two ways that that divide can shrink. The wealthy of the world proactively using their wealth for the common good, out of pure philanthropy; or by being physically forced to. This applies regardless of climate change problems or their potential solutions.

[–] Olgratin_Magmatoe@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (7 children)

However, there are quasi-stable positions slightly sunward of L1 where you can balance these instabilities and actually use the solar sail effect for station keeping in a swarm. It would require launching a lot of rockets, but is entirely doable with today’s technology.

Not a scientist, but I'm still fascinated by this stuff.

The cost of that is going to be the big issue. No government is going to want to pay for routine shipments of fuel and parts to L1, which is expensive as hell. And I wouldn't bet on international cooperation being a thing either. Each country is going to be too busy fighting over food and water, and keeping migration at bay.

Completely guessing here, it would probably be cheaper to raise the albedo of the planet through various means. Maybe including massive scale cloud seeding over the oceans. At least it's on planet and therefore hypothetically can be done with minimal fossil fuel use. How to do that without fucking up the environment with chemicals for cloud nuclei is the hard part.

That, or intentionally inducing a light nuclear winter, ideally without the nuclear part. With enough particulates in the upper atmosphere, it would do the job. The tricky part is doing that without overdoing it. This is the dumb version, but it's personally how I see things going. Especially because this is something a lone country could probably do on its own. China doesn't want to deal with all the effects of climate change? They may light up a bunch of islands in the Pacific with nukes to "solve" it.

Another dumb option that might arise, a country intentionally trying to start another global pandemic to reduce emissions. Emissions dropped dlike a rock with COVID, and a lot of countries have the ability to produce bioweapons.

There are myriad of dumb, harmful, cheap ways that individual countries could use to curb climate change. The next few decades are going to be dangerous as hell.

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Engagement, huzzah! Okay, the funding issue is an issue. Ironically, it requires companies like SpaceX (or their competition as they come online) to get the launch prices down. It's doable though. Back of envelope: The largest solar sail launched so far has been a paltry 14x14m, if my memory serves correctly. In order to reduce the incoming sunlight by 0.1%, you would need something like 60x1000 km of solar sails. Assuming you can make them 1 sq km each, you're looking at 60k solar sails. But they can be very very lightweight. Wikipedia proposes 0.02 g/m2 as a lower limit... let's use 0.05 g/m2 so we have some leeway and don't need exotic materials. Thus a 1km2 solar sail would weigh only 50kg (of sail material). Add another 200kg for some tensile frame and some control electronics and you're looking at something like a Starlink mass to get 1km2. Sure you'd need 60k of these things, but launching Starlink swarms that size is doable (to LEO -- you'd need a bigger rocket than the F9 for L1). Let's suppose Starship (or similar) is launching them in batches of 60 for $10M/launch... That's 1000 launches. Currently SpaceX is launching about every three days, so assuming Starship is online and capable, that would be three years of launches at the same rate as Starlink (but with a bigger rocket) and ten billion dollars. Okay, even if costs go up by an order of magnitude, we can do this, now, today, for about the cost of purchasing twitter. Musk really fucked up didn't he ;)

Okay, that's a lot of methane to launch the rockets. Back of the envelope, assuming one launch uses ~300t of methane. The per capita use of natural gas (globally) is about 50 cubic feet per person per day. A cubic foot of natural gas is about 35 grams, so the per capita usage in mass is about 1750g/day/person. So a single rocket launch uses about the same amount of natural gas 171,428 people would for one day. It's actually very small, comparatively. Even if I got my estimates wrong by two orders of magnitude (on total number of launches), it's still very small compared to the total amount of gas burned globally every day.

Okay, other options: we put the solar sails in a very high earth orbit (above the comms satellites) -- doable, but you'll require many many more of them as they won't site between the Earth and the Sun during most of their orbit. LEO would cause problems with collisions with comms satellites. You can't put them very low due to atmospheric drag. Plus, the closer they are, the more likely they are to create where little eclipses as their shadows pass by. L1 really is probably the best option.

Blimps flying around could do it. But you'd need like 60k blimps flying around in the upper atmosphere and each blimp would have to be an engineering marvel to get to that size. Probably not doable.

There's cloud seeding, as you suggest. But that becomes a political hot potato (blimps would too) due to where the clouds are created. What if China seeded some clouds which cause a torrential rainfall and flooding in Mexico as the atmospheric currents move those clouds. Etc.

A light nuclear winter sounds like a disaster -- what do we do, nuke a few volcanoes to set them off prematurely? That doesn't sound sustainable. Burn all the forests to release ash? Nope, that's our carbon sink that's burning...

Ironically, raising our albedo might be a decent local option -- just mandate white roofs everywhere. Just under 3% of our surface is urban and white roofs would also help with the urban heat island issue. You can probably paint 0.2% of the surface white. Not as good as blocking sunlight, but useful. The bad part is, solar panels are all dark, and moving to solar decreases our albedo. So maybe this will just offset changes in our average albedo due to solar panels.

Your last option reminds me of: Kill all the poor!

[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

There’s cloud seeding … What if China seeded some clouds which cause a torrential rainfall and flooding in Mexico

Or the exact opposite: what if China is successful? Cloud seeding doesn’t change the amount of moisture in the air, only where it falls. If you do succeed in getting it to fall prematurely, that means it’s not going to fall where it would otherwise have.

Any earthbound intervention is likely to be similar: even if you’re successful in modifying local weather, you’ve also modified someone else’s weather, and likely not for the better

Humans have gone to war for less

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[–] AWittyUsername@lemmy.world 19 points 3 months ago (7 children)

Are you actually a scientist?

Air Conditioning to mitigate climate change? That's like dowsing a fire with lighter fluid.

And you think we'll be able to out engineer the sun? In 250million years we will not be here guaranteed, and if somehow we make it it won't be in any form we know as human.

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[–] sugartits@lemmy.world 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The thing about humans are: we are frighteningly clever

Let me introduce you to Facebook.

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago (3 children)

Allow me to introduce you to: an abstract concept of facebook-

People, separated by thousands of miles, tap messages into their glass topped smart rocks that can then be seen by other people with smart rocks - it does this communicating with big metal trees that talk to magic caves, where millions of smart rocks think about those messages and pass them over to other magic caves by a glass wire, which in turn pass the messages to another metal tree and over to other glass topped smart rocks for people to read.

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[–] NineMileTower@lemmy.world 13 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Dude, shut up, I'm trying to doom scroll over here .

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

My gf calls me a "radical optimist" for believing in people eventually doing the right thing :)

[–] ModernRisk@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 3 months ago (3 children)

How can you be so optimistic? With everything that’s going on in the world, I get more pessimistic everyday. At bad days, I’d just think “let just humanity perish because we just keep repeating the same horrible things over and over anyway”.

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 12 points 3 months ago

The social media echo chamber has that effect. But statistically speaking, this is humanity's golden age. The average lifespan is up, we have instant global communication and positioning (wow!), conflict is down (take the wider view)...

Like, even if you added Ukraine and Gaza to this, they're small compared to historical conflicts. And this graph would be even more pronounced if we normalized it as percentages against the global population -- literally the last few generations have been least likely to die in conflict across all of human history.

[–] Kedly@lemm.ee 8 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

For me its because if you zoom out, the world is a better place to live in now, than it was 1000 years ago. Progress moves in waves, and right now it definitely feels like a significant low tide, but over time the coastline keeps creeping forward.

  • Humanity is the only meat eating animal that has significant percentage of its population willingly avoiding eating meat and instead finding ways to obtain essential nutrients without it (need to add that I am NOT one of those animals, I'm personally waiting for lab grown meat before I obstain from death based meat, if I ever do)

  • Humanity by and large no longer needs to leave its sick and wounded to die because we invented technology and infrastructure to both heal, and take care of those we cant heal

  • We've progressed to the point as a species where in order to bring more prosperity to our community, we no longer have to take from other communities, and that wasnt always the case (unfortunately this is only a recent achievement, and as such, not all of our population has adapted to this, hence our current problems)

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[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago (1 children)

2/3 of humans dying is also unlikely.

So much of our modern economy is rooted in assumptions about where and how to mass produce food stocks. Climate change threatens all of that.

Obliterating breadbasket regions in Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran would devastate the regional populations.

Then you've got the wars in places like Ukraine, Lebanon and Sudan, further strangling access to fresh food stocks.

People joke about the looming "water wars", but consider how much Israel and the Saudis have invested in desalination and what dehydration is doing to the million plus Gaza residents who have lost access to reliable drinking water.

What happens during a substantial crop failure in the South Pacific? It isn't as though India and China haven't experienced massive famines in living memory.

You can argue the finer details, but it is easy to see a scenario in which a billion or more people are wiped out over the course of a generation, because of substantive shifts in access to basic living needs.

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[–] ininewcrow@lemmy.ca 10 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I do agree that we are very inventive, capable and imaginative when it comes to solving great problems.

Unfortunately we are also capable of becoming very destructive, ignorant, selfish and absolutely brutal to one another especially under a lot of stress and anxiety.

My greatest fear in the coming decades is mass migration and entire populations of people moving to places where they won't be welcome, and people in places where everyone is relocating to worried that it will engage endanger their survival. The biggest problems we'll face won't be environmental... they will be political and social.

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[–] Aeri@lemmy.world 25 points 3 months ago (10 children)

OK but which third gets out alright I want to move there.

[–] TokenBoomer@lemmy.world 5 points 3 months ago

Antarctica. If you know you know.

[–] Honytawk@lemmy.zip 5 points 3 months ago (1 children)
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[–] AA5B@lemmy.world 21 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (6 children)

Anyone else notice the amusing edit fail?

This is not enough according to Dr. Brosnan, who gave a laundry list of steps the world could take to save the ozone layer

Hey doc, wrong environmental crisis. We already took steps to save the ozone layer

[–] BestBouclettes@jlai.lu 16 points 3 months ago (4 children)

You say that but the ozone layer hole actually started to grow again in the past few years.

[–] umbrella@lemmy.ml 9 points 3 months ago

probably because we stopped giving a fuck

[–] roguetrick@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago

It grows and closes seasonally. It's because it needs solar radiation to do the chemical reaction and stuff just builds up in the winter and then makes a big hole in the summer.

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[–] DarkCloud@lemmy.world 19 points 3 months ago

Feels like it's been speeding up the past few years. Barely had a winter season this year.

[–] CazzoneArrapante@lemm.ee 11 points 3 months ago (6 children)

@Kedly@lemm.ee, the world may be a better place than 1000 years ago but it's still worse than it was in the 90s.

[–] rbesfe@lemmy.ca 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (5 children)

Tell that to someone living in rural India or China in the 90s

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