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I think the weakness shown around Ukraine is now having the opposite effect that the early strong support and western democratic unity had at the start of the war, the CCP senses there's blood in the water.
Yep 100% Xi is smarter than Putin. He knew he needed to wait and see.
I'm not so sure he's smarter. I think he believes he has more time than Putin believes he has. And he's probably right about that.
Yeah that might be a better assessment of the situation. I would say he is more calculating than Putin.
Putin is a KGB officer who rose to the highest position in his country, then formed a position above that for himself. I'd say he is very calculating.
These are both very smart, ruthless, calculating men. I think the biggest difference is where in the timeline each is currently at, their ultimate goals, and the time they feel they have left to achieve that. Other key differences I would say are cultural, reflecting more on what their goals are and their method of achieving them.
Culture difference is a big thing. I do think Putin has lost a step. If you look at previous autocratic actions by him they were better planned and executed. Yeah Ukraine is the biggest thing he has tried to do. At the same time Putin is further down the dictator trap I really don't think Putin of ten years ago would have blinder so badly. Xi is an autocratic too and will definitely get there eventually. He is just not as deep in the hole.
What do you see as their individual goals?
Putin has stated more than once a desire to see the soviet empire reunified. Related to that, I think he wants greater power for that empire. There are also good indications that he has serious health issues that don't give him much time to do that in. Under those premises, the wars with Georgia and Ukraine make sense. I suspect the biggest reasons the war with Ukraine reignited is due to his awareness that he has less than a decade to cement his agenda and Ukraine would bolster the position of his successor for continued expansionist goals. The problem was probably twofold. He let his sense of urgency push him to act before he was ready and his advisors were giving him inaccurate information about the readiness and numbers of his military. Now he's in a position where regrouping will probably end his reign so he's relying on overwhelming his enemy with numbers rather than superior (or even equivalent) technology.
China, for all its size, doesn't seem to be overly expansionist. As long as you aren't oriental, you seem to be more of a financial target. Of course, this doesn't bode well for much of southeast Asia, eastern Russia, and Japan, but it probably comforts places like Australia and the Middle East. Also, culturally, China seems to be more oriented to group achievements rather than personal ones. Certainly, Xi wants to leave his mark, but moving towards the goal is enough to do that, rather than having to be the one to achieve it. This leads to more reserved actions, such as waiting a couple decades to take over Hong Kong rather than going to war with the West. Coupled with what appears to be a strong desire for homogeneity, forcing conquered peoples such as Tibetans and Uyghurs to adapt to national norms rather than maintaining their unique cultural traits, there seems to be a generational attitude towards expanding and integrating other regions, which again leads to a more reserved and strategic approach to their diplomatic relations compared to Russia's.
As a note, I'm very much a layperson with a strong Western background. I don't assume my opinions are correct, nor do I believe I'd even notice some of the nuances or motivations in either Russian or Chinese culture. This is just my assessment based on my admittedly limited knowledge in the military world and more generally in the political world.
Thanks for your input!
Add the shadow of another Trump presidency and they're motivated
Add it to the list. Although I think these drills are more about Xi seizing his own appendage than seizing power.
They all trying to help him find it?
The Neo Axis powers: China, Russia and Isreal
Ah, yes, Israel's lifelong supporter: China.
Just because they are on the same side doesn't necessarily make them allies. The enemy of my enemy is my friend...for now
The Neo Axis powers: China, Russia
Makes sense
and Isreal
wut
Israel is in the middle of throwing a hissy fit because western populations don't like what we're seeing done to Palestine. As soon as we take our weapons away from them they'll switch to Russian and Chinese systems and Russia is already two feet into round 2 of an attempted genocide of Ukrainians, specifically Crimean Tatars and other historic groups with stronger ties to Kievan Rus than the muscovites.
No reason for Russia to support Israel when they already support their enemies
That doesn't really follow, Russia has plenty to gain from an Israeli defection away from the west. Those "enemies" are a red herring
Russia is allied with Iran already.
As you might have heard Iran is not a fan of israel.
(1) I think you are underestimating how close Israel and the US are due to the billions we spend on their defense. It will evidently take more than genocide (or perceived genocide) to meaningfully deteriorate US/Israel relations to the point Israel starts aligning against the US alongside US adversaries. While western populations might be opposed to Israeli recent actions, no US foreign policies have meaningful changed.
(2) Israel is the definition of a soft power country. The type of games China and Russia play are of a whole different league. Russia and China can start a great power conflict with the EU and the US. Israel probably couldn't fight France without foreign support.
none of these countries are particularly warm with each other.
Unfortunately Israel is on the allied side. Bombs made in America blowing up little kids. It feels like we're all evil these days.
Who said America would be on the allied side?
The ministry said China sent 19 warships around Taiwan’s perimeter, 16 marine police vessels and 49 warplanes, of which 35 crossed the median line, the de facto border between China and Taiwan.
Lol, that's it? Taiwan is bigger in area than 9 US states and has 24 million people. It's taken China more than 19 warships and 49 planes to conquer uninhibited islands.
Would you really expect them to show their full force in a preparatory exercise? Why would they do that?
To scare Taiwan into capitulating without firing a shot. "Speak softly and carry a big stick." China is not going to invade Taiwan. They literally can't risk damaging anything on the island. They need the people there to accept them willingly.
China is not as dumb as Russia. Their leaders are venal and power hungry, but not stupid. They know the thing that keeps them in power is economic growth. If they don't have that, they can't control their population. An invasion of Taiwan would put racheting sanctions on their economy, slowly strangling it.
I understand your point of view and I agree that an invasion of Taiwan doesn't make a lot of practical sense, but I think you should also keep in mind the brutality China has demonstrated in Hong Kong. I don't think the PRC is as concerned with consequences as they are with getting what they want, and with appearing to be in control. Continued Taiwanese independence makes them look weak.
Nothing triggers authoritarianism quite like defiance.
Chinas economy is already dying due to a variety of factors. Winnie Pooh can either invade now or soon it will be never
Playing Devil's advocate there, but there are probably three reasons: it's expenaive, they want their best hand picked men and vessels to rattle the sabble without potential fuck ups, they need to toy the line between acting too small and too big so they are scary but no one thinks they are here for real and other countries should get involved.
They didn't conquer anything yet, they're flexing.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
China has begun its second day of military drills targeting Taiwan, in what it says is punishment for “separatist acts” after the inauguration of its new president on Monday.
China’s defence ministry said the drills on Friday were testing its military’s ability to “seize power” and occupy key areas, in line with Beijing’s ultimate goal of annexing Taiwan.
Taiwan’s government and people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but China’s ruler Xi Jinping has not renounced the use of force to take the island.
Beijing did not declare any no-fly zones, and no live fire was used except in practice areas on the Chinese mainland, according to Taiwan’s military.
In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, put its forces on alert, and moved anti-ship missile systems to coastal areas.
China’s official state news agency Xinhua said on Friday the drills were “legitimate, timely and entirely necessary, as ‘Taiwan independence’ acts in any form cannot be tolerated”.
The original article contains 523 words, the summary contains 154 words. Saved 71%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Flag waving and boot stomping. It's effective.
Tit-for-tat, innit?
Not a coincidence that the Filipino-American Balikatan military exercise this year simulated invading Taiwan... or that exercises ended on May 10th (taking place in the Batanes, 218km from Taiwan)... Or that they were the largest such exercises since 1991.
Not a coincidence that the Korean-American "Freedom Shield" military exercise was more than double the scale of last year's.
Also not a coincidence that Lai very conspicuously claimed that the PRC is an independent country, violating the ROC's Constitution and breaking the 1992 Consensus that is de facto upheld by the KMT and supported by the TPP immediately after agreeing to uphold said constitution...
While Lai holds the executive seat, his opposition dominates the legislature. Coincidentally, Taiwan is currently seeing mass protests against a bill that would shift power away from the executive to better match other democracies worldwide (this is the same bill that, notoriously, DPP lawmakers tried to steal from the Yuan to avoid getting it passed).
The DPP is a party that does not want Taiwan to stay Taiwan. It wants to ignore Taiwan's roots, it wants to ignore the history, the culture, and the economy. It does not want to uphold democratic ideals and instead prefers consolidated power within the executive... And, of course, this is even as KMT sympathizers hold a stranglehold over the upper echelons of Taiwan's military.