this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2023
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So, like all the others, while China will produce cheap eCars. Look, I don't want to predict the future, but if I only have 20-30k for a new car, I simply physically can't buy a 60k SUV. You can't jump into a saturated market of other car companies, who almost all seam to want only expensive eCars and expect a good outcome. There's only so much money in the pockets of people and only so much people are willing to pay for a used eCar, if it needs expensive battery replacement soon. Not going to happen. Build cheaper cars or fail.
Electric cars don't normally need a battery replacement during the car's lifetime. If the battery needs to be replaced, the car has usually already been running longer than most ICE cars ever would. The used market for EVs used to be pretty dire, with little supply and awful pricing. But it's slowly getting better. But of course the fact remains, that there is currently a lot of demand for cheap EVs and little supply. The Chinese are gearing up to eat up that part of the market.
What?
Show me a battery that goes 200k - 300k.
Just because the average consumer is an idiot and replaces cars long before then doesn't mean the vehicles can't go that far.
Every car my family has owned for the last 30 years has gone at least 200k, some 300k+. My current 2005 vehicle is at 270k, and I expect many more years from it, barring an accident. Our newest vehicle is from 2016, and is approaching 100k. An electric vehicle would be needing a battery soon, while all mine needs is an oil change, and perhaps a timing belt for $50 (to be fair, I'll probably spend $250 and replace the water pump, idlers, and primary belt while I'm there. Last time was 100k miles ago).
Aside from the Leaf, which does not have any sort of battery temperature management, I wouldn't expect an EV to need a battery so soon.
Teslas can easily make it to 200k miles at while retaining >80% of peak capacity, according to
.
Most of the other brands don't have enough vehicles approaching that milestone that I could find data on.