Football / Soccer / Calcio / Futebol / Fußball

Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams (in 1998), CONMEBOL qualifiers have consisted of 18 match days in a round robin home and away format. Previously, the top 4 finishers qualified directly and the 5th place qualified to the playoff/repechaje. With the 2026 expansion, CONMEBOL slots increased to 6 direct and 1 playoff.

Here is some data regarding the 7th place finisher in every qualifier since 1998 (except for 1998 and 2014 as Brasil was auto-qualified as previous winner and host in those years and only 16 matches were played):

The average 7th place finish earned 21.2 points. The most points for a 7th place finish occurred in the 2018 edition by Paraguay with 24 points (GD of -3). The least amount of points for a 7th place finish occurred in the 2002 edition by Bolivia with 18 points (GD of -12).

Additionally, you can look at how many points it would’ve taken to tie the 8th place finisher - as you could advance with a goal difference above the 8th place finisher but with the same amount of points.

The average 8th place finish earned 18.4 points. The most points for an 8th place finish occurred in the 2010 edition with 22 points (GD of -6). The least points for an 8th place finish occurred in the 2002 and 2022 editions with 16 points (GD of -11 and -14 respectively in those years).

25 points would seem to be the goal to nearly ensure at least a playoff spot, but as low as 16 points could be enough in a cycle where the bottom teams struggle. Now obviously, mathematically these ranges could be much higher and lower.

One additional note for anyone interested: In the 1998 and 2014 qualifiers (16 matches without Brasil), the 6th and 7th place finishers averaged 1.28 and 1.13 points per match. Compared to 1.18 and 1.02 points per match from 7th and 8th place finishers respectively in “normal” 18 match qualifying cycles.