this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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China still fears economic and military repercussions in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
As long as its economy is ill due to current factors like inflation, banking instability, and the inflated real estate market, we can assume that a war would be an economic and political shock right now that even Xi might struggle to navigate.
Edit: for everyone disagreeing, every foreign expert is expecting a war, and even the current US deterrence (criticized here as escalation) is not enough for most experts.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/08/us-military-deterrence-china-taiwan-war-east-asia/
Are you kidding, this is when China is starting to be most dangerous.
Internal strife of a country has always been the biggest factor on when that country goes to war. Creating a distraction for the populace and a bogeyman for them to hate is part of the autocratic playback.
Look back at the trump administration and how eager he was to bomb Iran and start a war. Or the current invasion of ukraine and the economic issues in Russia before the invasion.
It's not the sole driver but it's a big one.
How much worse is their internal strife going to be once they lose a war? Russia was tooling along before attacking Ukraine, but now they might actually for real topple within a few years.
I doubt you will see a major shift in policy after the Ukraine war.
We will probably see putin fall but the goverment he built and is responsible for what's happening in Russia today will still be there.
Financially Russia is largely fucked