this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Biden/Harris significantly strengthened the oil oligarchy. Posing an existential threat to Russia resulted in 3%+ of global diesel use for the war, and eliminates all possibility of Russia cooperating on global warming. Heating fuel high prices (same refining fraction as diesel) helped drive inflation complaints, and Biden/Harris could never suggest ending the war on Russia to fix inflation. Tariffs on solar, batteries, emobility, and EVs are pro-oil oligarchy as well. Steel tariffs are limiting any reindustrialization chances.
Any priority greater than climate sustainability, war and oil profits for example, ensures climate destruction. "Needing" the US to dominate a "slow energy transition" is placing an unnecessary priority above climate sustainability. Trusting the US as an ally ensures climate destruction. Japan and ROK abandonned their renewable energy targets during Biden administration to help US oil oligarchy.
While Trump may try to destroy US clean energy production and adoption, a war on Iran is likely to be divisive, though it is unclear Harris would have stopped it. Very high oil prices from a war on Iran will put the US on the razor's edge of collapse. Terrorism costs, war expense, inflation, will motivate leveraged dead ender energy investments throughout world, while simultaneously strengthening China/BRICs and demand destruction for FFs.
If there is no war on Iran, and peace in Ukraine, then lower oil prices will stop more US drilling. More US drilling will result in more OPEC production and accelerated price drops that discourage drilling. Like Biden, it is only war that will destroy climate. Trump will strengthen China even more than Biden did. The US is never likely to prioritize climate sustainability over clinging to desperate death throws over its hegemony.
Trump, by accelerating US collapse, will do more for climate sustainability than you think. Individual states and NATO vassals will take more responsibility for global warming.
Sorry, but accelerationism only gets us a lasting fascism. It doesn't get us the kid of stable world where people can substitute wind and solar for fossil fuels
My point is that the US will always prioritize global domination over climate sustainability. Trump's first term did include private/state level US mandates for sustainability as a reaction to dooming-fascism. That movement weakened under Biden. Local hope movements are an uphill battle, but still possible.
Nature of US politics, and a popular vote favouring extreme strengthening of oligarchy, can again result in a strong pendulum movement away from climate destruction, but the next zionist/neocon candidate the DNC provides us will not prioritize global cooperation/sustainability any more than Biden did. Either US collapse, or a political movement based on UBI that disempowers the US empire will lead to lower US emissions.
I wouldn't say that the movement towards state action weakened under Biden; we got some great examples of it, such as the requirement for renewables in Minnesota.